So I was thinking about this yesterday. I want to quit smoking (again) and I also want to learn to play the drums. Here my proposition to myself. If I smoke half a pack of cigs a day and a pack is $3 then 365 / 2 * 3 = $547.50 a year. That gives me enough new income to purchase this.
The problem is that I can't decide if I want to buy the drums up front or wait until I've proven I can make it all year. If I buy up front then there is a good chance that I won't make it and then I will be upset with myself for being so weak. Or I could wait until I've proven to myself I can do it all year and be a year behind in my learning to play.
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Some unsolicited advice: Stop saying things like "there is a good chance that I won't make it." Think positive. Quitting smoking is only hard for a couple of days. When those stray cravings come out of the blue after that just remember that the craving will go away in a minute or two whether you smoke or not. Also remember that one reason people find smoking relaxing is it's the only time they take a deep breath. So take a deep breath of oxygen and see how good that feels. If you're still concerned about long-term, write a postdated check to an individual or organization that you find repellent -- such as the KKK or the GOP or Bob Saget --- give it to someone you trust and tell them if you're still smoking in six months to mail it, and if not to tear it up.
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